NIE on Iran Nuclear Threat

It seems significant that the NIE report, which declares "confidence" in the notion that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons development back in '03, is very convenient for all parties involved.

The Bush administration is able to claim that they were right to be concerned in the first place. The "threat" is vindicated. But Iran can also claim that they are not pursuing nuclear weapons. The UN and the USA are able to find common ground.

It seems especially significant in light of the fact that the "surge" has been working so well in Iraq. How much of this success may have been determined by the fact that Iran has actually ceased its subversive activities? Directly, or indirectly, there seems to be a trade-off taking place. I think the key player in making this work is probably the Iraqi government in Baghdad, which for all of our criticism of them, we must admit they have done a as good a job as possible balancing friendly relations with both Iran and USA.

The success of the government in Baghdad looks more hopeful than it has since its establishment.

But while this may be a temporary easing of tensions between Iran and the West, it is probably only "temporary". The basic problem remains the same. Iran continues to pursue mastery of nuclear technology. Sanctions are still being pursued. Tensions are still high. Perhaps this is a way for Bush to offload the problem to the next administration.